As of 8/31/2023 – Cautiously Float with Optimism
The reprice risk today is low with not much to worry about either. Things are looking MUCH BETTER than a week ago with the possibility of the BEST RATES in over a month if we can get lucky with the markets reaction to tomorrow’s jobs data and it’s looking MUCH MORE LIKELY than it has…
Read MoreAs of 8/30/2023 – Base Rate Improvements
As of 8/30/2023 – Base Rate Improvements (FINALLY) Due to yesterdays JOLTS (Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey) showing fewer job openings than expected and a softening of the labor market bonds rallied STRONG which generated a significant drop in rates yesterday followed by another one this morning. There is still a lot of risk…
Read MoreAs of 8/28/2023 – Fed Meeting on 8/25
Well after all the hype Friday’s speech by the Fed Chair Jerome Powell was essentially a non-event. At the moment, the markets are pricing in another Fed Rate increase for November and little expectations that there will be a rate hike in September. This week’s Jobs report will be out this week. It’s either going…
Read MoreAs of 8/14/2023 – National Consumer Debt
As of 8/14/2023 – National Consumer Debt Credit Card Debt Eclipses $1 Trillion Credit card balances hit a high of $1.3 trillion in Q2, up nearly 5% from Q1, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York in its quarterly report on household debt and credit. In total, total household debt is at just…
Read MoreAs of 8/4/2023 – July Jobs Report Beat Expectations (barely)
July did post less than expectations though wages are up and inflation dropped which definitely makes for mixed signals for the FEDS as they continue to fight inflation … NEW JOBS created in July was 187,000 and expectations of 200,000 GOOD for the bonds and rates as the labor market is softening. UNEMPLOYMENT dropped down…
Read MoreAs of 7/27/2023 – Post Fed Meeting Yesterday (7/26)
Continued STRONG economic data put a hold on mortgage rates improving after yesterday’s Fed (overnight) Rate increase of 25 basis points (0.25%) … Jobless Claims came in LOWER than expected MEANING we still have a STRONG Labor Market. 2nd Quarter GDP (Gross Domestic Product) showed durable goods orders JUMPING meaning the economy is NOWHERE near a…
Read MoreJuly 19th Market Update
As of 7/19/2023 – Markets Have Calmed We are expected to see a 25 basis point (0.25%) increase in the Fed’s Rate next Wednesday (7/26). This increase has already been priced into the markets and WILL NOT affect Mortgage Rates. The original expectation was that there would be two more rate hikes though the markets…
Read MoreJuly Market Update
As of 7/17/2023 – LOWEST Core Inflation since 2021 Rates are looking better since last week’s CPI data … Bloomberg says this will mark a pivotal turning point for inflation … 3.0% Year Over Year and better than expected 3.1% 0.2% Higher for the Month and lower than expected 0.3% 4.8% CORE Year Over Year…
Read MoreJune Market Update
As of 6/29/2023 – Looks like rates are going higher even after the Feds made no change to their overnight rate for June and here’s why the bond market is driving rates higher … The 3rd revision of Q1 GDP (Gross Domestic Product) is 2% up from the prior revision of 1.3% For June consumer confidence…
Read MoreThe Feds are expected to raise their overnight rate in July
The Feds are expected to raise their overnight rate in July after no increase this month. There’s not a lot of activity in the markets which have already priced in next month’s expected to increase to 5.25% and with talks of one additional rate hike before year-end (most likely September) the markets will most likely…
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